Posted by
Bert Chapman on Saturday, January 29, 2011 11:35:32 AM
Recently, we've seen a revolutionary eruption in Tunisia which toppled a brutal and corrupt, but nominally pro-western dictatorship. The outcome of this upheaval is uncertain and the situation remains volatile. Yemen, which provides some help to the U.S. in its war against Al-Qaida, saw demonstrations this week and is struggling with separatist movements and the g rowth of Al Qaida in the Arabia Peninsula. Lebanon has seen pro-Iranian Hizbollah gain the throttles of power which will probably demolish the triumphant expectations engendered by the Cedar Revolution a few years ago. Even Jordan is experiencing unrest due to rising food prices and high unemployment.
However, most observers have been stunned by the turmoil in Egypt. This country has been the U.S.' most important ally in the Mideast and has justifiably cracked down against the Islamist terrorists within the long-standing Muslim Brotherhood. However, Hosni Mubarak's authoritarian regime has been in power for nearly three decades and has proven to be corrupt, unable to meet the economic aspirations of Egypt's growing population, allows the persecution of Coptic Christians, and has proven unwilling to move its governmental structure into a more democratic and, most importantly, non-Islamist direction. Some of the protestors are relatively secular democrats who could move Egypt into a positive direction. However, as Caroline Glick points out in a column in today's Jerusalem Post
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=205559 we should not be optimistic that opposition figure Mohammed El Baradei, the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has the credibility to move Egypt into a positive direction.
If Egypt falls into Islamist control, the consequences would be grievous. The Mideast's largest army would be used to attack Israel and actively support various Islamist groups in their terrorist attacks against the west. Egypt controls the strategically vital Suez Canal through which significant portions of the world's oil passes. The economic consequences of this being cut off would be cataclysmic. If you think we're actively involved militarily in the Mideast now, just wait and see what happens if the worst case scenario happens now. We need to encourage Mubarak to step aside soon but it is more important that his successor be competent, non-corrupt, absolutely reject Islamist ideology, maintain good relations with Israel and the United States, and engage in major economic reform efforts to provide enhanced employment opportunities for the Egyptian people. The U.S. has been charged with favoring stability over freedom in the Mideast. However, if the alternative to dictatorial stability and corruption is Islamist revolution, represssing women and religious minorities, and exporting terrorism, than dictatorial stability, regardless of its brutality and corruption, is the lesser of two evils.
The U.S., Israel, and the west are in a delicate diplomatic and strategic situation. Apologizing for real or alleged historic sins will not cut it. We need to encourage pragmatic elements within Egypt to create a more democratic and honest regime which will implement policies to genuinely improve the lives and economic prospects of Egyptians.