Posted by
Bert Chapman on Monday, January 24, 2011 7:42:20 PM
Chinese President Hu Jintao visited Washington, DC and Chicago last week. While in Washington, he was greeted with a state dinner by Obama and a chillier reception from Congress. Our multifaceted bilateral relationship with China is vitally important and filled with numerous opportunities and challenges. The growing Chinese middle class has the potential to be a major purchaser of U.S. products and services. China is also increasing its investment in the U.S. economy and holds a significant volume of U.S. debt which gives it considerable potential leverage over the U.S.
At the same time, China also commits intellectual property fraud on a wide scale and is a significant human rights abuser of groups such as Tibetans, the Falun Gong exercise group, and Christians. Considerable debate exists over whether China desires to threaten the U.S. directly or U.S. preeminence in the Western Pacific. Their military has grown considerably in striking power in recent decades and is committed to achieving preeminence in an informatized battlefield environment. China continues increasing its ballistic missile arsenal directed at Taiwan, made little or no effort to restrain North Korea's nuclear program, has periodically harassed U.S. military forces conducting maneuvers in the Western Pacific, has successfully tested space weapons, coerced Japan in a recent dispute over the ownership of offshore islands, has constructed a string of pearls of naval assets in areas as diverse as Thailand, Myanmar, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka to ensure secure access to its economy's continually growing demand for oil and natural gas, and has sought to increase its political leverage in Africa and Latin America by providing "no strings attached" economic development assistance to countries in these regions.
After centuries of repose following its mysterious decision to quit pursuing international exploration and maritime activity during the 16th century, China is beginning to strut on the world stage. While Marxist-Leninist or Maoist Communist ideology no longer animates Chinese foreign and national security policymaking, old-fashioned nationalism and economic prosperity have become the primary drivers of Chinese geopolitics. It's not a surprise that China unveiled a new stealth military aircraft when Hu Jintao was being feted at the White House. While China may desire domestic political and international economic stability in its rhetoric, its actions demonstrate its desire to threaten U.S. interests on a global scale and to remove U.S. influence from the Western Pacific. The U.S. has made some efforts to increase its security cooperation with countries as diverse as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Australia, India, and even Vietnam as Chinese hard and soft power increase. These efforts should increase in the years to come and also include Taiwan. Due to the perennial rise and fall of powers throughout history and the perception that the U.S. is a declining power, I believe that military conflict of some kind between the United States and China is historically inevitable at some point within the next two decades. Future Presidents and U.S. leaders need to start preparing public opinion for this eventuality NOW and make sure our forces, and those of allied nations, have the appropriate mix of conventional, nuclear, information warfare, and space-based assets to win this confrontation.