Posted by
Bert Chapman on Sunday, November 29, 2009 5:22:05 PM
We often are told that oil is a source for potential military and geopolitical conflict and it's true that "black gold" has been a historical, contemporary, and future source of political tension and conflict. However, oil's importance is less than water's when one calculates potential future arenas of natural resource conflict.
Individuals living in the western U.S. know how important and scarce water can be. Considerable technological expertise and expense have been used, often at significant environmental cost, to ensure that sunbelt states as diverse as Arizona, California, and Texas have access to ample water sources to fuel their economies and maintain what early 21st century Americans consider as minimal standards of living. Books such as Norris Hundley's The Great Thirst: Californians and Water History document the political, legal, and environmental impacts of this unending quest for water in America's most populous state. Numerous other works and court cases document the contentiousness of water policy within the U.S. Federal agencies such as the Interior Dept's Bureau of Reclamation and numerous state and local government water agencies, along with commercial water suppliers, engage in a continual struggle to find new and abundant sources of water at affordable costs for consumers and businesses. This struggle is likely to become more intense if global warming is a reality and with continual population growth in the western states which may require these states to seek water resources from other areas of the U.S. Imagine the consequences of California seeking to obtain water from the Missouri River or the Mississippi River. Talk about stoking regional political antagonisms in the U.S. on a scale not seen since the Civil War.
Dependable access to potable water is also a major problem in numerous global areas. I recently heard a National Public Radio story about problems accessing water in the Arabian Peninsula country of Yemen. This country has experienced prolonged drought which has been exacerbated by corrupt individuals and governmental officials seeking to drill deeper underground in areas where there water reserves are highly unlikely. There are water shortages in areas such as Israel which also affects many of its surrounding neighbors and could produce conflict beyond the already existing tensions in that region. India and Bangladesh have difficulties in making effective use of regional water resources due, in part, to India's population growth. Anyone familiar with Australian environmental history, will know the important role played by the Murray and Darling rivers in fostering that countries economic prosperity including its major status in global grain markets. Think about the impact of drought depleting water resources in grain producing areas of the world as diverse as Canada, the U.S., Australia, Argentina, and Russia. It is also possible to find increasing numbers of national security policy documents and substantive public policy analyses addressing the possibility of international political and military conflict over water resources.
Africa has also been victimized by droughts on a regular basis which has caused significant humanitarian catastrophe and created refugee flows which impact regional geopolitical dynamics. No area of the world is immune to water shortages. The 21st century may see governmental policymakers in the U.S. and elsewhere compelled to take what might seem draconian steps such as limiting lawn watering and other areas of non-essential water use to ensure that there are sufficient water resources to meet personal household economic needs and essential national and international economic needs. Most of the U.S. has been extremely fortunate that we have not been deprived of dependable and relatively cheap access to high-quality water. There is no guarantee that this will continue if continued population growth, natural resources consumption, and existing legal and regulatory policies do not adjust to continually evolving economic, environmental, and political trends along with adapting to unpredictable climatic trends which may also restrict water availability. Such water shortages could produce regional and global conflicts on a scale that might make us nostalgic for twentieth century conflicts because water effects us all in ways oil cannot.