Posted by
Bert Chapman on Wednesday, August 13, 2008 4:39:35 PM
The situation in Georgia is tragic from a humanitarian standpoint but also signals that more ominous events may occur in the Eurasian security environment in the years to come. Russia's relative security quiescence in the post-Cold War period has come to an end. Flush with oil and natural gas money, encouraged by a U.S. that is preoccupied with Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan, and emboldened by a dubious desire to protect Russian citizens in the "near abroad," Russia's leaders now are set on pursuing a more assertive role in international affairs. Georgia's leaders probably overplayed their weak hand in taking aggressive measures against separatist forces in Abkazia and South Ossetia. Unfortunately, since Georgia's not a part of NATO, its ability to carry out such operations against Russian interests is extremely limited and it's unlikely to receive more than rhetorical support from the U.S. and NATO countries. Consequently, it looks like Georgia will lose a significant portion of its territory and its ability to defend its sovereignty against future Russian encroachments is limited.
History is repeating itself as Russia seeks to reassert control over territories that were once part of the Soviet Union.
The U.S. and its NATO allies should provide military aid to Georgia and work to accelerate Georgian integration into NATO. We should also work to expel Russia from the G8 and possibly the International Monetary Fund. We are entering an era of a more aggressive Russian bear thanks to Putin and Medvedev's determination to reassert Russian nationalism and traditional Russian authoritarianism. Some commentators have drawn comparisons with Munich and other examples of Western appeasement of Nazi Germany. Such parallels have some validity but are premature at this time. However, firm and substantive response is needed by Western democracies if we are to avoid repeating the policy failures responsible for causing World War II to break out in Europe.