Posted by
Bert Chapman on Wednesday, February 06, 2008 10:21:19 AM
John McCain, thanks to favorable establishmentarian media coverage, is clearly the front-runner for the GOP nomination. His victory in California solidifies that along with other victories he won last night. Romney did well in Massachusetts, Alaska, the northern plains and the rockies, but could not come up with a victory in California or the south. A resurgent Huckabee did well in the south siphoning off votes for Romney but it's clear Huckabee doesn't play well beyond the south. Romney was also victimized by the cynical Huckabee-McCain power play in West Virginia and more seriously by residual anti-Mormon and anti-New England prejudice that still lingers in the psyches of many insecure hypersensitive southerners. McCain will probably get the nomination, but he has to contend with a significant phalanx of distrust held toward him by many conservatives for his apostasy on issues such as campaign finance reform, immigration, and coddling terrorist detainees. If he is the nominee, I'll follow his mother's advice by holding my nose and voting for him, but that's only because the alternative of a Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama is to ghastly to contemplate. I cannot support McCain with any enthusiasm at this point and remain loyal to Romney.
The upcoming Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC) conference will give McCain an opportunity to substantively address conservative concerns with what will hopefully be specific policy proposals. Romney will need to persuade attendees that he's the only candidate with the intellectual acumen to defeat Clinton and Obama, and Huckabee will have to demonstrate that he can appeal to non-southerners and non-evangelical Christians.
On the Dems side, Tuesday's results showed their is still a race on which I hope will become increasingly bitter and create deep and painful cleavages within the Democratic psyche. Wouldn't the loser of the Democrats presidential campaign struggle running as an independent be delightful? Clinton won the big enchilada of California but Obama won more states overall, including Missouri, and New Mexico's results are still uncertain.
It was especially enjoyable to see Massachusetts Dems reject Kennedy and Kerry's endorsement of Obama.
The ultimate result is the contests will go on for awhile longer due to ideological fractures within both parties.